Blue Catablog

So we are divided as to what to think about the resignation of Tom DeLay. Yes he will not be in Congress to wreak havoc on all that is good, but it will be harder for the Democratic Party to use him as the symbol of a corrupt, out-of-touch, hypocritical Republican Congress. But while he may not be the symbol, the Republicans in Congress certainly have done enough themselves to make certain their overall competence and corruption is the main issue in the November elections. And who says that just because he is gone, that we must forget The Hammer.

The biggest loss, however, could be the potential of the Democrats taking the congressional seat that DeLay is leaving. DeLay's claim that the reason he is resiging is that he probably could not win back his seat, but another Republican could probably keep it in GOP hands, is most likely part of the truth (though his former Communications Director and Chief of Staff pleading guilty to various charges is probably the greater reason.) But TX-22 will still now be an open seat with the Democrats running a formidable former member of Congress, Nick Lampson, who already has raised over $2 million.

While the natural advantages are certainly with the Republicans in the district, DeLay actually gave up some of his GOP partisans during the redistricting he maneuvered a couple years ago in order to protect other Republican TX House members. In 2004 DeLay received 55% of the vote against a weaker opponent than is Lampson and with Bush at the top of the ticket. Granted, some of the ethics problems had already appeared, but still 55% is not a safe seat by any means. However, the Democrat in that election only received 41% of the vote as third party candidates got about 4%. Before the mid-decade redistricting, DeLay had received 63% in the 2002 election.

But will the citizens of TX-22 want to go back to the status quo of being represented by a Republican representative? A lot, I believe, will ride on who the Texas Republicans choose as their replacement candidate. The selectors, according to Roll Call, include 4 county Republican chairmen, and four representatives selected by precinct chairmen. These are basically party hacks and it will be interesting to see whether they choose someone who has curried favor with the party, or whether they look at someone who is electable. According to various articles, the potential replacement candidates are:

• David Wallace, Mayor of Sugar Land
• State Representative Charlie Howard
• State Senator Kyle Janek
• Harris County Judge Robert Eckels

Supposedly party insiders think that if Eckels wants the nomination it is his. And considering the ethics issues surrounding not just DeLay but the Republican Party in general this year, a judge could be a good choice. The problem with any of these choices, however, is that none of them have been on the ballot in more than a quarter of the district. Nick Lampson's old district covers part of the current TX-22 and as he has been running for months, his name recognition is probably fairly high. Sugar Land covers about 10% of the voters in the district, and considering that it is a satellite of Houston, Wallace probably isn't that well known beyond his city's borders. Howard was unchallenged in his last election. Kyle Janek's district covers an interesting slice of the 22nd CD and may be the most viable candidate geographically.

I don't know the backgrounds of any of these candidates, but on the surface it seems that we shouldn't write off Lampson' candidacy quite yet.

--Ian